46: Pomp & Circumstance(s)
A new administration in Washington, and a new season of hope in America
A very happy Friday to you all and welcome to 46, the weekly diary of the Biden presidency.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have come into power after four years of dysfunction, disaster, and death in our government and country. They stand at the starting line of what will be a new era in our nation’s history, and they confront a range of crises more severe than at any other time in modern history.
Those crises include the unrelenting pandemic, growing economic misery, systemic and widespread racial injustice, a climate emergency, and deep divisions within our democracy.
From the start, President Biden’s to-do list will span policy and politics, but also extend to the deep need for healing. His twin mandates are to “build back better” and “restore the soul of America”.
Neither are easy; both are necessary.
And on Wednesday at noon, during a day of pomp and under less than ideal circumstances, his work - our country’s work - began.
Here’s what caught my eye from the first week (er, handful of days) of the Biden presidency:
1. The Inauguration
(Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Where else to begin? Biden put his hand on the epic Biden family bible and took the oath of office in front of a small crowd of mask-wearing family members, guests, and elected officials. The Washington Post theater critic called the ceremony “an exceptional christening for a new administration”, but alas, in Washington, good feelings don’t last long. In this winter of trauma and challenge, there shall be no honeymoon for the new team.
2. Day One
Executive Orders were flying out the door from the start on Wednesday, and Politico has a good write-up of “The 17 things Joe Biden did on day one”, listing EOs that:
Require masks on federal property
Rejoin the World Health Organization
Set up a Covid office that reports directly to Biden
Extend foreclosure and eviction moratoriums
Freeze student debt collection
Rejoin the Paris climate accords
Revoke the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline and cancel other Trump administration energy rules
Nix the 1776 Commission
Unwind Trump’s changes to the census
Strengthen legal protections for “Dreamers”
Abolish the “Muslim ban”
Cancel the Trump administration’s interior enforcement rule
Halt construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall
Extend deportation protections for Liberians
Ban workplace discrimination against LGBT employees
Implement an ethics pledge for all executive branch officials
Freeze Trump’s “midnight regulations”
More EOs will be signed, and even though there are limits to how far they can go, these do represent the beginning of the process to undue the damage brought on by the previous president.
3. The First 100 Days
There’s a bit of a narrative developing that Biden’s 100 million vaccine shots in his first 100 days isn’t in fact all that ambitious:
I don’t know whether the Biden team was lowballing its goal to put points on the board or what, but ABC News points out what the bigger issue is:
…public health experts say 1 million shots a day isn't nearly fast enough to wrest the virus under control any time soon. That's because two doses are needed for a person to be considered immunized, or protected.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and now Biden’s chief medical adviser, estimated 70 to 85% of the country's 325 million population will need to become immune for the pandemic to die out. So to get there anytime soon, Biden would need to think bigger -- more like 2 million shots per day.
Biden rejected the suggestion that his goal was too low, telling reporters on Thursday "come on, give me a break, man. It's a good start."
The “come on, give me a break, man” phrase is Biden’s tell when he feels he’s being treated unfairly. And he is correct that one million shots a day is absolutely a good start, but keep that two million/day number in the back of your mind - that’s what we need to get to.
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Switching to the COVID/economic relief bill front, Reuters reported Thursday that the House will bring the bill to a vote the first week of February, with Speaker Pelosi saying:
“We will be doing our committee work all next week so that we will be completely ready to go to the floor when we come back,” Pelosi said
With Democrats in control of the House, the bill should pass without a problem. But the challenges lie on the Senate side, with Bloomberg reporter Steven Dennis tweeting the (unsurprising) news that Republicans will not be on board:
Collins, Romney, and Murkowski were the most “gettable” Republicans, so if they are all a no, then everyone on the Republican side is.
It’s in Biden’s bones to give bipartisanship a chance, but this current bill just won’t get the 60 votes necessary to overcome a filibuster. However, the Dems can pivot to passing this bill through the reconciliation process, which is possible for budget-related bills and only requires a simple majority.
Getting the bill passed would be a major achievement, but it is ultimately only part of the legislative agenda. And other pieces of legislation face worse odds, unless Democrats do what many on the left hope, and vote to end the filibuster (more on that below).
Okay, so we know the Republican position: no-go on the bill. What matters now, then, is how the Biden team responds. If you hear Biden and his team trying to justify Senate negotiations over the scope and size of the bill, then that means we are headed the way of the 2009 stimulus, which got watered down and weakened. But if you see a sense of urgency to get this bill passed through reconciliation as-is and put on Biden’s desk ASAP, then that means they’ve learned the lessons of a decade ago.
Bottom line: even in week one, this moment is shaping up to be an inflection point for the entire Biden presidency.
4. The Filibuster!
Ahh, yes - the good ol’ filibuster! Sixty votes are needed to overcome it in the Senate, and modern polarization means practically nothing stands a chance to get that many votes.
So much of Biden’s success and our country’s fate depends on whether or not Democrats in the Senate will be able to pass legislation. Many mainstream figures - Barack Obama chief among them - have come around in support of doing away with the filibuster.
Biden’s Senate roots run deep, though. He came of age during a different time, when the filibuster was used less and bipartisanship was more common. Some fear he still believes we can return to those days, but they are long gone.
That’s why thought leaders on the left like Paul Krugman and Ezra Klein are pushing for speed and aggressiveness from Biden. Klein, on Twitter, weighed in with this:
Obama put it plainly and so did Klein: progress or filibuster. If the Democrats choose to keep the filibuster, they will hamstring Biden’s agenda and progress will stall. And worse, they may lose their majorities in the House and Senate come 2022.
And just to underline the ridiculousness of the situation:
5. Confirmation Hearings
Avril Haines, Biden’s Director of National Intelligence, is the first cabinet-level official to be confirmed by the Senate. At the same time, NPR reports:
The House of Representatives and Senate approved a waiver Thursday for retired Army Gen. Lloyd Austin to serve as President Biden's defense secretary. Both votes were overwhelming and bipartisan.
Normally the House has no role in confirming Cabinet secretaries. But Austin retired from the military four years ago, short of the seven years required by law to take the civilian job without a waiver from both houses of Congress.
A Senate vote on Austin's confirmation is expected as soon as Friday.
Blinken, Buttigieg, and others all seem to be on a clear path to confirmation. No hurdles yet - yet.
One note to end on: stepping away from the politics of the moment and the immediacy of the challenges we face, there seemed to be a collective sigh of relief not just in much of the US but around most of the world when the clock struck noon on Wednesday and Joe Biden became president.
It’s honestly hard to feel anything less than ecstatic over it. All the incompetent people have been replaced by competent ones; the racists are out and the realists are in; and the sycophants are gone and the superstars have arrived.
Most importantly, the greatest threat to our nation is no longer sitting in the Oval Office.
Despite the challenges that remain and the suffering so many are experiencing, so much will change soon, so much will improve soon, and soon so many lives will be transformed for the better.
Although I wrote that there is no time for a honeymoon, there is time enough to smile, breathe a sigh of relief, and feel like these next four years will be a whole lot better than the past four years.
But it will take work, and it will take staying engaged.
Talk with you next week~